This paper documents the assumptions and analysis that underlie the presentation and discussion of the exhibit on the Global GHG Abatement Benefit and Co-benefit Curve: 2030 in our 2014 Better Growth, Better Climate report. This analysis emphasises the importance of considering a fuller range of benefits of actions to reduce carbon emissions when comparing these with higher-carbon alternatives.

After several years at high levels, oil prices dropped by more than half between June 2014 and January 2015, leading many to ask questions about the implications for the economy and for countries’ and companies’ energy choices. Although such price swings have happened before, the issues being discussed are indeed quite important. 

This analysis weighs the potential benefits and risks of relying on expanded natural gas expansion and use as a “bridge” to a lower-carbon energy future, based on a review of the research literature and of recent modelling studies, as well as interviews with sector experts. It also examines the extent to which natural gas could play such a role, and the conditions that would be required. 

Momentum for a low-carbon economy is building, but much more needs to be done. International partnerships can help catalyse the economic growth and emissions reduction to get us there. The Global Commission makes 10 key recommendations in which partnerships can help deliver better growth and a better climate. 

Global aviation and shipping together produce about 5% of global CO2 emissions, and by 2050 this is expected to rise to 10–32%. Yet these sectors offer some of the most cost-effective emission reductions available today, particularly through improved fuel efficiency. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate recommends that emissions from the international aviation and maritime sectors be reduced in line with a 2°C pathway through action under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). 

Strong, predictable and rising carbon prices send an important signal to markets and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions without harming the economy. Around 40 national jurisdictions and over 20 cities, states and regions, have adopted or are planning explicit carbon prices, covering about 12% of global GHG emissions.

This report finds that growth strategies which fail to tackle poverty or climate change will prove to be unsustainable, and vice versa. A common denominator to the success of both agendas is infrastructure development. 

About US$90 trillion in infrastructure investment is needed globally by 2030 to achieve global growth expectations, particularly in developing countries. To achieve this, infrastructure investment needs to be both scaled up and climate objectives need to be integrated due to climate risks. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate recommends that G20 and other countries adopt key principles ensuring the integration of climate risk and climate objectives in national infrastructure policies and plans. 

This note describes the Commission’s assessment of future infrastructure investment needs. It presents projections for a baseline scenario, and the estimated incremental investment required for a low-carbon scenario. It sets out the sources used and provides an overview of the estimates and modelling undertaken by the New Climate Economy (NCE) network. 

This case study was conducted and written by NCE partner Tsinghua University. It shows how China can achieve economic development, energy security and reduce pollution at the same time.